Russian President Vladimir Putin is tightening his power grip by elevating younger loyalists amid growing internal pressure and a new criminal case against exiled critics, signaling potential Russian elite instability.
Putin Solidifies Power Amid Growing Pressure
As President Putin navigates domestic and foreign challenges, he is taking steps to arrange his inner circle to prevent splits. Those around the 73-year-old leader, who has ruled for over two decades, are reportedly thinking about a future beyond him.
“All the people around him have started thinking about a world beyond Putin, so he has arranged his own elite in a really careful way, so there are no clear seams along which it would kind of rip apart,” said Henry Hale, a professor at George Washington University.
Putin Power Grip: Elevating Family, Younger Loyalists
Part of this strategy involves how Putin elevates younger loyalists into the power structure to ensure continuity and loyalty. According to Hale, these individuals are trusted because of their connections and bring youthful energy to the regime. “The younger people are being brought up by the older generation, integrated seamlessly into the power pyramid,” he stated.
One prominent example of the Anna Tsivilyova Putin family connection is the rise of his first cousin once removed. “He also has members of his own family now that are starting to rise in the ranks,” Hale noted, identifying the 52-year-old Anna Evgenievna Tsivilyova as a key figure.
Kremlin Targets Critics Living Abroad
The Kremlin’s focus has also shifted to silencing opposition figures living outside Russia. The Federal Security Service (FSB) recently opened a criminal case against Mikhail Khodorkovsky, an exiled businessman who spent a decade in a Siberian prison.
The FSB case against Mikhail Khodorkovsky also includes 22 members of the Anti-War Committee of Russia, accusing them of plotting a seizure of power. John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said that “the Kremlin is falling into paranoia.“
Prigozhin Mutiny Serves as a Warning
The brief 2023 mutiny staged by Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin stands as a stark reminder of internal threats. Prigozhin died in a plane crash just weeks after his aborted march on Moscow.
Hale described the event as a clear signal to Putin’s inner circle. “The 2023 incident was a warning from Putin to his own elite… not to dare try anything,” he said, adding that “tensions remain within the elite and Putin wants to get rid of any possible risks.“
Russia Faces Economic Headwinds and Uncertainty
Despite these moves, Russia faces significant economic pressure that could lead to a recession due to western sanctions, reduced oil revenue, and war costs. The government may respond by raising taxes and increasing domestic borrowing to manage the economic gap.
While war brings uncertainty, Hale believes Putin has weathered the initial shock of the Ukraine invasion. He assessed that despite the risks, “Putin’s regime is fairly stable at the moment.“
