A new dataset tracking the US recession probability has been added to Federal Reserve Economic Data, providing a fresh tool for analyzing macroeconomic conditions. The latest figures for August 2026 place the estimated economic contraction probability at just 0.08 percent. This resource helps observers evaluate economic health using timely indicators, with new monthly values becoming available on the first business day following the close of the reference month.
How is the US recession probability calculated?
The statistical model behind the US recession probability dataset combines two primary economic measures to gauge economic health. It incorporates the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing business conditions index alongside financial market stress tracking from the European Central Bank.
Developed by economists Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone, the information originates from RecessionRisk.com and is now integrated into economic databases for public research. Historical comparisons show that probability spikes generally align with official business cycle turning points identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research, though occasional false alarms have occurred during periods of heightened financial stress.
